21
Mar
You guys know I’m a huge fan of the Oscars. Every year I count down the days to the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences Awards ceremony. I try to see as many nominated films as I can, and I especially try to see all the films nominated for Best Picture.
To view a full list of the nominees click here.
This year’s Best Picture nominations brought some surprises and some snubs. Many thought House of Gucci would be nominated for Best Picture or at the very least Lady Gaga would get a Best Actress nomination. But House of Gucci was completely left out of the Oscars except for a nomination in Makeup and Hairstyling which it will likely lose to Cruella or Dune.
Spider-Man: No Way Home pushed hard for an Oscar nomination with a big campaign. They had targeted “for your consideration” ads going out to many Academy voters, and were asking for the film to be considered in all categories. But with true Oscars tradition, the film did not get nominated for Best Picture, with Black Panther and Joker being the only super hero films to ever be nominated. It did get a nomination for Visual Effects, which it will likely lose to Dune.
Many are talking this year about how difficult it is becoming to predict not only Oscar nominations, but Oscar wins. I like to think I’m pretty good at predicting Oscar wins. Last year I got 18 out of 23 correct, and the previous year 19 out of 24. Which is 78% accuracy. But with the Academy adding more and more members each year, and nearly 25% of the Academy members being from outside the United States, things are becoming more unpredictable than ever.
To me that’s incredibly exciting! It really leaves the possibilities quite open and means any film could win! Remember when Parasite, the first non-English language film, won best picture in the 2020 ceremony? And when Nomadland, a movie with essentially no budget and only 1 professional actress, won best picture in the 2021 ceremony? This year it really could be anyone’s race.
Let’s dive right in to the nominees and what they mean for this years race. I’ve broken the nominees down into three categories. Keep in mind that everything written here is speculation and opinion.
The Front Runners:
Belfast: Many are predicting that Belfast will win because it has the most crowd appeal. But we’ve seen many films win in the past that don’t have crowd appeal. But one thing that the preferential ballot does is makes a movie that many people ranked #2 or #3 on their list quite more likely to win assuming enough people ranked it #2 or #3 and the #1 slot is divided. For an explanation on the preferential ballot, read this blog post. Personally I loved Belfast and I’ll be rooting for it to win!
Dune: was the highest grossing box office film on the list this year, and one of the highest grossing nominated films of all time. That could make it a front runner, but the films that make the most money don’t often win. Dune also lacked nominations in above the line (“above the line” is a film industry term that means director, producer, writer, actor etc. positions that contribute to the creative process and voice of a film) categories except for an Adapted Screenplay nomination, making it even more unlikely to win Best Picture. That being said, Dune was nominated in almost every below the line category, including: Best Costume Design, Best Sound, Best Original Score, Best Film Editing, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, and Best Visual Effects. If Dune sweeps all of those categories that would put it far and above the rest of the Best Picture nominees.
The Power of the Dog: It really all comes down to The Power of the Dog. This film is nominated in almost every category which is always a great asset for a winning film. Personally I thought the film was incredibly boring and I can’t believe that critics are liking it so much. It’s a polarizing film that people either love or hate, but with direct Jane Campion winning so many awards leading up to the Oscars, it is the most likely winner, unless the preferential ballot puts Belfast ahead.
The Potential Surprises:
CODA: CODA is a sweet film with great acting, but it’s hard to imagine such a straight forward film winning best picture when it doesn’t have an incredible score or breathtaking cinematography. Troy Kotsur will likely win for Best Supporting Actor making history as the first deaf man to win an Oscar (he’s already made history as the first deaf man to be nominated). But other than that CODA doesn’t bring much that is flashy or unique to the table.
Don’t Look Up: is probably too controversial to win. Similar to Power of the Dog, people seem to either love it or hate it. Tt received very few nominations outside of Best Picture, which again makes it an unlikely candidate. With such a stacked cast of A list actors we would have expected to see at least one of them nominated in an acting category, but they were not included this year.
Drive My Car: is the only international film nominated for Best Picture, but since Parasite won in 2020, anything is possible and we shouldn’t count Drive My Car out. It will likely win Best International Feature Film. For me, the movie lacked a driving plot which made it’s long run time feel even longer.
Not Even in the Running:
King Richard: An unlikely contender despite it’s inspirational story about Venus and Serena Williams. King Richard didn’t bring anything new or unique to the table and had very few other nominations. Will Smith will likely win Best Actor, which in my opinion he deserves, but the category is full of men who deserve to win this year. If you like sports movies, I would definitely recommend watching King Richard, just know that it’s probably not going to win.
Nightmare Alley: Guillermo del Toro won previously for Shape of Water, so we shouldn’t completely discount Nightmare Alley from the race. But Nightmare Alley has had less press than Shape of Water and has grossed $50 million less that Shape of Water, which means far less people have seen it. That makes it less likely to be a front runner, and with the competition being so steep this year, I think it’s safe to say that Nightmare Alley isn’t a front runner.
Licorice Pizza: When a film plot is described as “coming of age” just remember that means there is no plot. Licorice Pizza is just another version of Lady Bird which was overrated and unrelatable in my opinion. It doesn’t have any acting nominations or nominations really in any other category which makes it an unlikely winner.
West Side Story: The original film adaptation of West Side Story won Best Picture back in 1961. Many hope that the new Stephen Spielberg adaptation will repeat history. But the film has under performed at the box office. I enjoyed the music, dancing, and the costumes of this film, but it didn’t screen Oscar winner to me. Arianna DeBose will likely win Best Supporting Actress for playing Anita, the same role that won Rita Moreno the same award in 1961.
So there you have it. In my opinion the front runners for Best Picture this year are The Power of the Dog, Belfast, and Dune. But the Academy continues to surprise me, so we’ll have to wait and see. What are your predictions? Which films did you see in 2021 and loved?